Friday, April 25, 2008
Going Green Puts Some Business in the Red
Our lives are saturated with unavoidable headlines about global warming. Our society has been warned about the imminent effects of greenhouse gases on our economy for years. Greenhouse gas emissions negatively affect our economy in areas such as public health, crop damage, transportation, local businesses, and visibility. Lawmakers, scientists and activists around the globe are demanding automakers become more environmentally-conscious. Rising global temperatures, skyrocketing fuel costs and changing weather patterns are all held up as the payback for years of neglecting the environment and of the production and use of inefficient vehicles that are designed to stoke egos more than the ecosystem. Industries like the automobile or airline have made many efforts to become more fuel-efficient and more environmentally responsible. Do you think that the issue of greenhouse gas should be of top priority to the future presidents of our nation? And is the United States doing enough about the issue, is it ok to just do our part?
Consumer Confidence
An early advance fizzled on Wall Street Friday after a consumer sentiment reading fell to its lowest level in more than 25 years and a disappointing forecast from Microsoft Corp. weighed on technology issues.
How does consumer confidence effect our economy? The Consumer confidence level is hoe people respond to events such as sharemarket, oil prices, increase in interest rates etc.
To understand more about the Consumer Confidence Index, an online encyclopedia tell us: “A month-on-month decreasing trend suggests consumers have a negative outlook on their ability to secure and retain good jobs. Thus, manufacturers may expect consumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly large-ticket items that require financing. Manufacturers may pare down inventories to reduce overhead and/or delay investing in new projects and facilities. Likewise, banks can anticipate a decrease in lending activity, mortgage applications and credit card use. When faced with a down-trending index, the government has a variety of options, such as issuing a tax rebate or taking other fiscal or monetary action to stimulate the economy.
Conversely, a rising trend in consumer confidence indicates improvements in consumer buying patterns. Manufacturers can increase production and hiring. Banks can expect increased demand for credit. Builders can prepare for a rise in home construction and government can anticipate improved tax revenues based on the increase in consumer spending.”
How does consumer confidence effect our economy? The Consumer confidence level is hoe people respond to events such as sharemarket, oil prices, increase in interest rates etc.
To understand more about the Consumer Confidence Index, an online encyclopedia tell us: “A month-on-month decreasing trend suggests consumers have a negative outlook on their ability to secure and retain good jobs. Thus, manufacturers may expect consumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly large-ticket items that require financing. Manufacturers may pare down inventories to reduce overhead and/or delay investing in new projects and facilities. Likewise, banks can anticipate a decrease in lending activity, mortgage applications and credit card use. When faced with a down-trending index, the government has a variety of options, such as issuing a tax rebate or taking other fiscal or monetary action to stimulate the economy.
Conversely, a rising trend in consumer confidence indicates improvements in consumer buying patterns. Manufacturers can increase production and hiring. Banks can expect increased demand for credit. Builders can prepare for a rise in home construction and government can anticipate improved tax revenues based on the increase in consumer spending.”
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Gas Prices and the Economy
Gasoline prices shot up to yet another record at the pump Thursday. At the pump, the average national price of a gallon of regular gas jumped 2.3 cents overnight to $3.556 a gallon, according to a survey of stations by AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Prices have risen nearly 14 cents in one week.
Gas prices have risen sharply in recent days partly because refiners have been switching over from selling winter grade gasoline to the more expensive but less polluting form of the fuel the government requires them to sell in the summer.
Higher prices for oil, especially if they are permanent, will encourage greater production of oil by existing producers, more exploration for oil, revival of old oil fields, utilization of marginal resources such as coal, oil sands, oil shale and heavy oil. Expanded development may occur in politically troubled areas such as Iraq and Venezuela and in difficult environments such as the Arctic Ocean.
The price of transportation will increase, resulting in a general rise in the cost of all goods. Goods such as plastics will be especially more expensive. Over the long term demographics will change with people moving to cities and avoiding suburban and exurban locations. Property values will rise in cities and fall in suburban areas, especially the long commutes. Some isolated resort and retirement communities will also be affected by lower desirability. Vacations may change somewhat with people going to a place and staying for a period, rather than driving long distances from place to place.
What kind of impact has higher gas prices had on your wallet?
Gas prices have risen sharply in recent days partly because refiners have been switching over from selling winter grade gasoline to the more expensive but less polluting form of the fuel the government requires them to sell in the summer.
Higher prices for oil, especially if they are permanent, will encourage greater production of oil by existing producers, more exploration for oil, revival of old oil fields, utilization of marginal resources such as coal, oil sands, oil shale and heavy oil. Expanded development may occur in politically troubled areas such as Iraq and Venezuela and in difficult environments such as the Arctic Ocean.
The price of transportation will increase, resulting in a general rise in the cost of all goods. Goods such as plastics will be especially more expensive. Over the long term demographics will change with people moving to cities and avoiding suburban and exurban locations. Property values will rise in cities and fall in suburban areas, especially the long commutes. Some isolated resort and retirement communities will also be affected by lower desirability. Vacations may change somewhat with people going to a place and staying for a period, rather than driving long distances from place to place.
What kind of impact has higher gas prices had on your wallet?
Monday, April 14, 2008
Retail Industry Slowing Down
The Commerce Department reported Monday that inventories held by businesses on shelves and backlots increased by 0.6 percent in February after an even bigger 0.9 percent gain in January.
The inventory increase in February came at all stages of production. Manufacturing inventories rose by 0.5 percent, wholesale inventories were up 1.1 percent and retailers saw their stockpiles increase by 0.2 percent. The rise in inventories was accompanied by a drop in sales for the month.
The increase in inventories, while boosting overall economic output in the first quarter, will likely act as a drag in coming months as businesses cut back on production to reduce stockpiles to more comfortable levels. Retail stores are hurting nationwide right now. Why do you think that is? Just look at stores at Jefferson Point Shopping Center, The Sharper Image went bankrupt, The Gap closed their store last year, The Loft is thinking about closing. I’m sure increased inventory isn’t the only reason stores are hurting. Do you think gas prices are hurting retails stores, with the correlation between purchasing power of consumers?
The inventory increase in February came at all stages of production. Manufacturing inventories rose by 0.5 percent, wholesale inventories were up 1.1 percent and retailers saw their stockpiles increase by 0.2 percent. The rise in inventories was accompanied by a drop in sales for the month.
The increase in inventories, while boosting overall economic output in the first quarter, will likely act as a drag in coming months as businesses cut back on production to reduce stockpiles to more comfortable levels. Retail stores are hurting nationwide right now. Why do you think that is? Just look at stores at Jefferson Point Shopping Center, The Sharper Image went bankrupt, The Gap closed their store last year, The Loft is thinking about closing. I’m sure increased inventory isn’t the only reason stores are hurting. Do you think gas prices are hurting retails stores, with the correlation between purchasing power of consumers?
Monday, March 24, 2008
Illegal Immigrants, Positive or Negative?
In recent news, there was a follow up story on the New Bedford raid. This time last year,
federal agents raided a factory in this old whaling town, arresting hundreds of illegal immigrants as they sewed vests and backpacks for U.S. soldiers.
Most were shackled and sent to a detention center in Texas , where they faced rapid deportation unless they could post thousands of dollars in bail to buy time to mount a defense.
Then, a mystery benefactor appeared. The anonymous donor ponied up more than $200,000 to spring 40 people from detention.
Many people will argue that illegal immigrants produce negative effects on the economy and others find positive correlations. I think these immigrants in the factory are hurting our economy because they’re not paying taxes and not contributing to our economy. The economic impact of illegal immigrants in the United States depends on whether taxes paid by illegal immigrants and their contributions to the economy make up for the government services which they use as well as the economic input of the immigrants themselves and the cost of externalities such as added strain on public health that they may add.
Do you feel that the positive effects of illegal immigrants outweighs the negative ones?
For more information about this current event visit http://www.workingimmigrants.com/
For more information on the economic impact of immigrants http://www.auditor.leg.state.mn.us/Ped/2006/immig.htm
federal agents raided a factory in this old whaling town, arresting hundreds of illegal immigrants as they sewed vests and backpacks for U.S. soldiers.
Most were shackled and sent to a detention center in Texas , where they faced rapid deportation unless they could post thousands of dollars in bail to buy time to mount a defense.
Then, a mystery benefactor appeared. The anonymous donor ponied up more than $200,000 to spring 40 people from detention.
Many people will argue that illegal immigrants produce negative effects on the economy and others find positive correlations. I think these immigrants in the factory are hurting our economy because they’re not paying taxes and not contributing to our economy. The economic impact of illegal immigrants in the United States depends on whether taxes paid by illegal immigrants and their contributions to the economy make up for the government services which they use as well as the economic input of the immigrants themselves and the cost of externalities such as added strain on public health that they may add.
Do you feel that the positive effects of illegal immigrants outweighs the negative ones?
For more information about this current event visit http://www.workingimmigrants.com/
For more information on the economic impact of immigrants http://www.auditor.leg.state.mn.us/Ped/2006/immig.htm
Monday, February 25, 2008
Revitalizing Fort Wayne
One topic of hot debate in Fort Wayne is the Harrison Square Project. Everyone has an opinion about Harrison Square and it seems there are more adversaries than supporters, but one thing is agreed, that Fort Wayne needs SOMETHING to stimulate the economy. In recent news: “While residents got a chance to check out some of the project’s amenities last week, several important financial pieces are scheduled for this week. The City Council Tuesday will hold a public hearing regarding the tax abatement for The Harrison condominium project. If granted – which could be done Tuesday – the tax break would save the project $850,000 over 10 years at current rates.”
My own opinion on the topic is that a baseball field is simply not the answer to our problems. What Fort Wayne should have done was to take the land and literally give it to Sweetwater or Vera Bradley! We need more businesses downtown!! With businesses, come more restaurants, hotels and entertainment thereby stimulating economic growth for Fort Wayne. A baseball field will be open for six months out of the year; I question whether the new business will survive without the baseball crowd no longer visiting downtown after the season is over. What’s your opinion on the topic, I know you have one?!
My own opinion on the topic is that a baseball field is simply not the answer to our problems. What Fort Wayne should have done was to take the land and literally give it to Sweetwater or Vera Bradley! We need more businesses downtown!! With businesses, come more restaurants, hotels and entertainment thereby stimulating economic growth for Fort Wayne. A baseball field will be open for six months out of the year; I question whether the new business will survive without the baseball crowd no longer visiting downtown after the season is over. What’s your opinion on the topic, I know you have one?!
Friday, February 8, 2008
A Casino in Your Backyard
Last month, a bill for a riverboat casino license went through the Indiana Senate. The bill would have allowed one of the Gary riverboat casino licenses to be transferred to Steuben County in the far northeastern corner of Indiana. Dan Barden wants to consolidate the two Gary Majestic Star Casinos he owns on Lake Michigan into a single, larger operation. Arguments for the casino included, a single, expanded casino would do better and provide at least as much revenue for Gary as the two smaller casinos docked close to each other on Lake Michigan. He also argued that a casino in Steuben County would draw a lot of business from Michigan and Ohio. Meeks argues the move could create 800 jobs. The County had the second-highest unemployment rate in the state in October.
Although the bill did not pass this time around, that doesn’t mean there won’t be more to come in the future. In my opinion, the casino is not a good development. I agree that it will help create jobs, therefore lowering the unemployment rate, but it could tear families apart. The people that will be patrons of the casino will become regulars and it will lead to an addiction to gambling. Because of the immediate rate of gratification, becoming addicted to gambling is easy. The riverboat is probably going to bring in people who live in the poorest parts of the county. In turn, they will go in debt therefore creating more economic problems than before. What do you think about this issue? How would you feel about a casino in your backyard?
Although the bill did not pass this time around, that doesn’t mean there won’t be more to come in the future. In my opinion, the casino is not a good development. I agree that it will help create jobs, therefore lowering the unemployment rate, but it could tear families apart. The people that will be patrons of the casino will become regulars and it will lead to an addiction to gambling. Because of the immediate rate of gratification, becoming addicted to gambling is easy. The riverboat is probably going to bring in people who live in the poorest parts of the county. In turn, they will go in debt therefore creating more economic problems than before. What do you think about this issue? How would you feel about a casino in your backyard?
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Continuance of the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor
As we all know by now, the New York Giants are the Super Bowl XLII champs! But what does this mean for the future of the stock market? Based on my previous post about the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor, stock prices will rise during years in which the NFC wins the Super Bowl and decline in years the AFC wins. The New York Giants are part of the NFC, therefore according to this theory we should see an overall rise in the annual return in all shares. Actual returns are generally the result of trends in the P/E ratio. So maybe we’ll see a rise in investments. For the time being, we’ll have to wait on the edge of our seats to find out if this theory holds true this year.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor
It’s game time! The Super Bowl is the most watched television program of the year. That’s probably not breaking news to you. But are you aware that as millions of Americans are eating, drinking or in other words watching their waste sizes grow and cheering their favorite teams on to victory, that they are also watching a game that determines the fate of the stock market? Studies show that there is a relationship between the outcome of the Super Bowl and the performance of the stock market. It’s known as the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor (SBSMP).
The National and American Football Leagues merged in 1966 and created the Super Bowl as the focus of both leagues seasons. According to the SBSMP, stock prices will rise during years in which the NFC wins the Super Bowl and decline in years the AFC wins. This prediction applies to all shares, whether included in the New York Stock Exchange, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, American Stock Exchange, or NASDAQ.
The SBSMP correctly predicted the sign of the annual return for the NYSE twenty nine out of thirty six times. That’s over eighty percent accurate. For a more detailed look into the correlation between the Super Bowl victors and the stock market, look at this report: http://www.uwlax.edu/BA/fin/Research/Super%20Bowl%20Predictor.pdf. This site provides charts and data to support this theory. As well as an in depth look as to why the phenomenon works! For now, let’s watch the game and worry about the stock market tomorrow!
The National and American Football Leagues merged in 1966 and created the Super Bowl as the focus of both leagues seasons. According to the SBSMP, stock prices will rise during years in which the NFC wins the Super Bowl and decline in years the AFC wins. This prediction applies to all shares, whether included in the New York Stock Exchange, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, American Stock Exchange, or NASDAQ.
The SBSMP correctly predicted the sign of the annual return for the NYSE twenty nine out of thirty six times. That’s over eighty percent accurate. For a more detailed look into the correlation between the Super Bowl victors and the stock market, look at this report: http://www.uwlax.edu/BA/fin/Research/Super%20Bowl%20Predictor.pdf. This site provides charts and data to support this theory. As well as an in depth look as to why the phenomenon works! For now, let’s watch the game and worry about the stock market tomorrow!
Friday, February 1, 2008
Current Events Effect on the Economy
It rains in Brazil, terrorists attack, OPEC changes output levels, a natural disaster hits the U.S. What do all of these events have in common? The occurrences of these events all effect the economy, whether it is on a global or local scale. These incidents also shift the stock market in a measurable and consistent way.
Peter Navarro is the author of the book "If It’s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks". According to this book, when rain interrupts a drought in Brazil, the price of coffee beans decrease. Therefore Starbucks along with other coffee vendors make more profits. Consequently their stock price increases.
Current events impact our economy everyday. Understanding how the news affects the market in advance could potentially make you a more profitable investor. This blog is designed to explore differenct case studies for a better understanding of why and how current events shape and change our economy.
http://www.amazon.com/Its-Raining-Brazil-Buy-Starbucks/dp/0071433198
Peter Navarro is the author of the book "If It’s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks". According to this book, when rain interrupts a drought in Brazil, the price of coffee beans decrease. Therefore Starbucks along with other coffee vendors make more profits. Consequently their stock price increases.
Current events impact our economy everyday. Understanding how the news affects the market in advance could potentially make you a more profitable investor. This blog is designed to explore differenct case studies for a better understanding of why and how current events shape and change our economy.
http://www.amazon.com/Its-Raining-Brazil-Buy-Starbucks/dp/0071433198
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